Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resouce Operations' Services

CLEVER Model 10-day Forecast Outlook (Friday April 28, 2017)

 

    This week was seasonally warm with scattered showers across the province. According to 10 day weather forecast from Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), the temperatures across the province stay at the similar levels this weekend into early next week and then warms up for the south next Friday and then drop back again. Scatter showers to light rainfall are expected across the province for the next 10 days. Given the above weather conditions combining with the current streamflow conditions, the CLEVER Model forecasts:
   1. Province-wide: The streamflows of most of the rivers across the province are expected to rise slowly and the river levels are expected to stay below the 2-year return period levels for this forecast period (April 28 to May 07, 2017);
    2. The Upper Fraser and Nechako: The streamflows are expected to rise slowly and steadily and stay below the 2-year return period flows;
    3. The Middle Fraser and Quesnel: The streamflows are expected to be stable or rise slowly and stay below the 2-year return period flows;
    4. The Thompson and Nicola: The streamflows are expected to be stable, drop slightly or rise slowly and stay below the 2-year return period flows;
    5. The Lower Fraser and Squamish: The streamflows are expected to drop slightly, be stable or rise slightly and stay below the 2-year return period flows. The Fraser at Hope (08MF005) is currently running at 3,028 m3/s; and is expected to reach 3,500 m3/s late next week;
    6. North and Central Coasts including the Skeena and Nass: The streamflows are expected to be stable or rise slowly and stay below the 2-year return period flows;
    7. The Liard and Northeast: The streamflows are expected to rise slowly and stay below the 2-year return period flows;
    8. The Peace Region: The streamflows are expected to be stable or rise slightly and stay below the 2-year return period flows this weekend. Some of the smaller tributaries are expected to reach 5 year return period flows next week. However, some of the stations might NOT be functioning properly and might be recording incorrect data;
    9. The Columbia and Kootenay Basins: The streamflows are expected to be stable, drop or rise slightly and stay below the 2-year return period flows;
    10. The Similkameen and Okanagan-Kettle Regions: The streamflows are expected to drop slightly this weekend and then rise late next week and stay below the 2-year return period flows.

 

Numerical Output of the CLEVER Model 10-day Forecasts:
  1. The Fraser Basin: Upper Fraser and Nechako; Middle Fraser and Quesnel; Thompson and Nicola; and, Lower Fraser and Squamish.
  2. Northern BC: North and Central Coasts; Liard and Northeast; and Peace Region;
  3. South Interior: Columbia and Kootenay Basins; and Similkameen and Okanagan-Kettle Regions.

Links:
  1. Map of CLEVER Model 10-day Forecasts of Discharges and Return Periods.
  2. Map of EC's 10-day Forecasts of Daily Average Temperature and 24H Precipitation (10 page PDF file).
  3. Map of Current Streamflow Return Periods for All WSC Stations.
  4. Freshet Information.
  5. Current Advisories and Flood Warnings
  6. Technical Reference for the CLEVER Model (1.2M PDF)