Outlook of CLEVER Model 10-day Forecast of Discharges and Return Periods

Updated on Tuesday June 5, 2018

As the freshet is reaching its end, this outlook is no longer updated unless a flooding situation is forecast for the province.

Numerical Output of the CLEVER Model 10-day Forecast:
  1. The Fraser Basin: Upper Fraser and Nechako; Middle Fraser and Quesnel; Thompson and Nicola; and, Lower Fraser and Squamish.
  2. Northern BC: North and Central Coasts; Liard and Northeast; and Peace Region;
  3. South Interior: Columbia and Kootenay Basins; and Similkameen and Okanagan-Kettle Regions.

Links:
  1. Map of CLEVER Model 10-day Forecast of Discharges and Return Periods
  2. Technical Reference for the CLEVER Model (2.5M PDF), CWRA Conference paper (1.2M PDF)
  3. Map of 10-day Forecast of Daily Average Temperature and 24H Precipitation (10 page PDF file)
  4. Map of Current Streamflow Conditions for All Real-time WSC Stations in BC
  5. Current Advisories and Flood Warnings
  6. Current Streamflow Conditions and Flood Forecast Modeling
  7. Home of River Forecast Centre

Note of Data Sources:
  1. The observed discharge and water level data are provided by the Water Survey of Canada (Disclaimer for Hydrometric Information and Terms and conditions), and represent the most current reading between midnight and 8AM on the current date.
  2. Return Periods are expressed in years and reflect the discharge rate associated with the statistical probability of the annual maximum discharge of the historical record for a given station. Data shown on the map indicate the forecast range of discharge at a site for this forecast period.

Disclaimer:
Users should use the information on this map with caution and do so at their own risk.

  A. Observed Data: The observed data are collected in near-real-time by automated monitors at numerous remote locations and are unverified. The data are preliminary, and may be changed upon subsequent review. Some data may be wrong. It is not uncommon for individual water level recorders to give false readings, due to local conditions. The return period estimates presented on this map are preliminary and are often based on limited data. They should be considered as reference values only, by which to evaluate the current readings. They should not be used for design or other purposes. Users of this data must accept all responsibility for the use and interpretation.
  B. Forecast Data: These forecasts are derived from a hydrologic model using observed climate data from Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) (Data License Agreement) and Province of British Columbia (Copyright) and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) GRIB2 data (Terms and conditions) from the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC), ECCC. The model and data have limitations, inaccuracies and errors. As such, values given in the above map should only be treated as estimates, are provided for guidance only, and are subject to change. The actual discharges or water levels observed will be different from the forecasts. Users of this data must accept all responsibility for their use and interpretation.