The Extrapolating Logarithmic Flow (ELF) Model 30-DAY Low Streamflow Forecast for 08HF004

How to read the ELF Model 30-day low streamflow forecast:

  1. The forecast is only an extension of the streamflow using a mathematic methodology without considering any weather factors. The forecast only represents the likelihood of low streamflow, which is different from the actual streamflow. Forecasts for "regulated" stations are for information only.
  2. Always look at the lower forecast which represents the possible trend of low streamflow. The model may also forecast a rising high streamflow, which only means that there is a low possibility of low streamflow. Do NOT treat it as a high streamflow forecast.
  3. Glossary: QOBS/HOBS - observed discharge/water level; QFOR/HFOR - forecast discharge/water level; MAD/MAL - mean annual discharge/water level; xx% MAD - xx percent of MAD; xx% MAL - water level related to xx percent of MAD assuming that the water level is converted into a discharge.
  4. Check the ELF model recent forecasts for  the last month and  a similar period of the last year to have an idea about the accuracy of this forecast. For more information about the ELF Model forecast accuracy, please download the statistical bar charts of historical forecasts for this station from links provided below the interactive charts.



Download a static version of this chart:  Linear Y axis for discharge;   Logarithmic Y axis for discharge. Download the statistical bar chart of historical forecasts for this station.


Download a static version of this chart:  Linear Y axis for water level;   Logarithmic Y axis for water level. Download the statistical bar chart of historical forecasts for this station.

Links:

  1. Download ELF MODEL 30-DAY LOW STREAMFLOW FORECAST (csv file) for this station (08HF004)
  2. Water Survey of Canada's real-time hydrometric data site for this station (08HF004)
  3. Technical Reference for the ELF Model (PDF)
  4. Go back to Map of ELF Model 30-Day Low Streamflow Forecast

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Disclaimer:
Users should use the information on this website with caution and do so at their own risk.
  A. The observed discharge and water level data are daily averages calculated based on Water Survey of Canada's real-time hydrometric data (Disclaimer for Hydrometric Information), B.C. Real-time Water Data (Copyright statement), and USGS Real-time Water Data (USGS Policies and Notices) as they are. The data are provisional and subject to change. The mean annual discharge (MAD) and mean annual water level (MAL) are estimated based on the preliminary and limited data. They should be considered as reference values only. They should not be used for design or other purposes. Users of this data must accept all responsibility for the use and interpretation.
  B. The forecast low streamflows are derived from a mathematic model. The model and data have limitations, inaccuracies and errors. As such, the forecast should only be treated as estimates, are provided for guidance only, and are subject to change. The actual discharges or water levels observed will be different from the forecasts. Users of this data must accept all responsibility for their use and interpretation.